50 percent chance of a rate increase in December, leads down the market.
Anticipation of the speech in Jackson Hole keeps markets in red, yesterday night the Dow Jones fell -0.35%, SP500 – 0.52% and the Nasdaq closed in – 0.81%. We are waiting for a hint from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole that starts today. But analysts are placing their bets on this turning out to be negative for the markets in short terms. The futures markets on Wednesday were indicating an 18 percent chance the U.S. central bank would hike rates at its policy meeting next month, and a roughly 50 percent chance of a rate increase in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Investors will be looking to the Fed, to see if it provides a clear and concise message or not, meanwhile the economics data in US is very important like an indication as to know when it may raise interest rates, for the moment the majority of the important numbers are excellent to the U.S. economy. And today in the economic calendar we need to check the next:
Core Durable Goods Orders: Previous -0.4%, Forecast 0.5%. Consensus forecast calls for a rebound in growth to 3.7% for new orders at the headline level for the monthly comparison in July. If so, orders will advance for the first time since April. Impact on the market: If is high is better for the stocks, but also increases the chances to raise interest rates.
Initial Jobless Claims: Previous 262k, Forecast 265k. In keeping with the upbeat trend for this leading indicator in recent history, economists are expecting another dose of encouragement.
Impact on the market: Is better for the stocks, the more lowly possible, but if is low also increases the chances to raise interest rates. If the forecast holds, and there’s no reason to think otherwise, Fisher’s upbeat outlook will draw on deeper statistical support. If so, the news will lay the groundwork for expecting a comparatively bullish report on the economy when Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks tomorrow at the central bank’s.
In the FX market The dollar was range-bound in illiquid Asian trade on Thursday as major currencies continued to tread water ahead of the global central bankers’ may offer new clues on U.S. monetary policy. The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.1275, pushing down the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, to 94.715, 0.1 percent lower on the day.
Crude prices dipped on Thursday as brimming U.S. and Asian fuel inventories returned investor attention to a large global supply overhang, cutting short a price-rally. WTI futures were at $46.74 a barrel, down 3 cents, after dropping 2.8 percent on Wednesday. We expect today a slight recovery until the level of resistance in the 47.33 usd. If that price break the next point of resistance will be in 47.72.
Graphics by: www.etoro.com
Yesterday was another positive day for the sports company that closed up +1%, in a very negative day for the rest of the markets, but Nike still went up. The next level to reach is 60.34, after this point the positive trend may continued strong.
Graphics by: www.etoro.com
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